Cyclone Freddy poses dangerous flood threat in southern Africa following deadly Madagascar landfall

Cyclone Freddy made its first landfall Tuesday in Madagascar and was blamed on the deaths of four people, according to the Associated Press. Now the tropical cyclone has its sights set on southern Africa, where it will pose a dangerous flood threat in Mozambique as it concludes its rare two-week journey across the southern Indian Ocean.

While these types of storms are called tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific oceans, they are called cyclones in the Indian Ocean.

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Cyclone Freddy peaked at Category 5 intensity

Cyclone Freddy had weakened to the equivalent of a tropical storm as of Wednesday (U.S. time), according to the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Freddy peaked at Category 5-equivalent intensity last weekend as it tracked across the southern Indian Ocean.

Cyclone Freddy made landfall in Madagascar

Cyclone Freddy made its first landfall near Mananjary on the eastern coast of Madagascar late Tuesday morning (U.S. time). The JTWC advisory issued about an hour before Freddy moved onshore indicated it had maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, equivalent to a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

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Freddy will now threaten southern Africa

Cyclone Freddy moved westward across the island of Madagascar and emerged over the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday morning (U.S. time). On the forecast path, Freddy will continue on a westward track and make its second landfall in Mozambique late Thursday or early Friday (U.S. time), likely at tropical storm-equivalent or perhaps Category 1-equivalent strength.

This scenario would be a rarity because less than 5% of southern Indian Ocean tropical cyclones make landfall on the eastern coast of southern Africa, according to a study published in the journal Weather and Forecasting in October 2004.

Dangerous flooding is a major concern from Freddy

Heavy rain will result in the potential for dangerous flash flooding and landslides in Madagascar and portions of southern Africa – including Mozambique, Zimbabwe and northeastern South Africa – especially in areas with hilly or mountainous terrain.

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Freddy developed near Indonesia in early February

The origins of Cyclone Freddy go back over two weeks to Feb. 6, when it developed off the coast of southern Indonesia. According to NOAA's historical hurricane tracks database, there has only been one other Category 1-equivalent or stronger tropical cyclone in the southern Indian Ocean to make the entire journey from near Indonesia to Madagascar: Cyclone Eline/Leone in February 2000.