Invest 91L designated in tropical Atlantic as peak of hurricane season approaches
The National Hurricane Center is now giving Invest 91L a medium chance of development over the next two days and a high chance of developing over the next week.
Invest 91L likely to become Gabrielle in Atlantic
Odds are increasing for the disturbance Invest 91L to become Tropical Storm Gabrielle over the next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
MIAMI – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated a tropical disturbance that emerged off the coast of Africa last weekend as Invest 91L on Thursday and forecasters are saying it will likely become Tropical Depression Seven later this week or over the weekend.
The term "invest" is used every hurricane season in the Atlantic and the Eastern and Central Pacific basins, accompanied by a number from 90 to 99 and either the suffix "L," "E" or "C," respectively. It is used to identify areas that are being investigated for possible development into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next seven days.
(FOX Weather)
Invest 91L is currently located in the eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde islands and is producing showers and thunderstorms that became somewhat better organized Thursday morning, according to the NHC. The disturbance is moving into an area where environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual development.
Right now, the NHC is giving 91L a medium chance of development over the next two days and a high chance of developing over the next week.
WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION VS. TROPICAL STORM VS. HURRICANE?
The FOX Forecast Center said that the steering currents are weak across the tropical belt, so it may take about a week until the system is in the vicinity of the Caribbean islands.
Even though the atmospheric conditions are only moderately conducive for development between Africa and the Caribbean, it won’t take much for the system to spin up into at least a tropical depression.
In the long range, the FOX Forecast Center said that computer forecast models are split.
This graphic shows the potential setup for a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic.
(FOX Weather)
Some of them are showing a weak disturbance continuing to the west, and others predict the system will develop into Tropical Storm Gabrielle or Hurricane Gabrielle and then make a turn to the north.
At this time, it appears as though a strong dip in the jet stream will be reinforced across the eastern U.S., which should continue to deflect any strong storms to the north.
However, the FOX Forecast Center said that the jet stream has much less steering effect on weaker systems. So, if this disturbance doesn’t develop into much of a system, its future track is much less certain.
Be sure to download the free FOX Weather app to keep up with developments of this tropical disturbance.