Tropical deluge surging into Florida means rainy week ahead with flooding potential
Tropical downpours will drench the Sunshine State, creating a flooding potential for South Florida by midweek. The good news is that the rain will help cool scorching temperatures and possibly provide drought relief for Southwest Florida.
Relentless tropical downpours underway Tuesday in Florida
Rain, and a lot of it, is coming to Florida this week as a slug of deep tropical moisture is pulled north across the state. Within this area of moisture, there is low probability that a tropical system develops as it moves out of the Caribbean.
MIAMI – A deluge of tropical moisture is forecast to bombard Florida this week, possibly dropping a foot of rain in some cities and leading to potential flooding across the state.
This week's tropical downpours are being fueled by high- and low-pressure areas working together to funnel moisture over Florida.
The FOX Model showing future radar and clouds into Friday.
(FOX Weather)
"We have this area of low pressure back towards Mexico. We also have this area of high pressure over the Atlantic, the two of which are pretty much going to be stationary through the course of this week, but it also is going to act as a funnel as tropical moisture moves its way off towards the north heading into the Gulf of Mexico," FOX Weather Meteorologist Kiyana Lewis said. "Eventually, with this drop in the jet stream, that's going to support most of that moisture being filtered right over the state of Florida."
The incoming downpours will help cool Florida after this past weekend's scorching temperatures and heat indices in the triple-digits.
Storms move over Hollywood, Florida, on Saturday, June 8, 2024.
(pbyrond/X)
On Monday, Florida witnessed heat indices in the upper 90s before the deluge of rain provided some needed relief.
Central Florida's high temperatures will drop back into the upper 80s by Wednesday. However, when factoring in the relative humidity, the heat index in Orlando will remain in the mid-90s.
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Image 1 of 4Tuesday's forecast. (FOX Weather)
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Image 2 of 4Wednesday's forecast. (FOX Weather)
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Image 3 of 4Thursday's forecast. (FOX Weather)
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Image 4 of 4Friday's forecast. (FOX Weather)
After a forecast high of 96 degrees in Jacksonville on Tuesday, temperatures in the 80s will be a welcome change by Wednesday.
Significant rain totals could lead to flooding
According to the FOX Forecast Center, the highest rain totals will happen between Wednesday and Friday this week, bringing the potential for flooding as that rain adds up.
The tropical deluge will continue into the weekend. By Saturday, some areas in Southwest Florida, including Fort Myers and Naples, could see more than a foot of rain.
(FOX Weather)
For areas including Miami and Fort Lauderdale, the rain event has already started. Both cities could see between 8 and 12 inches of rain throughout the week.
Orlando is poised to get 3-5 inches, with Thursday being the day with the highest rain totals. For North Florida, 1-2 inches is likely from Jacksonville to St. Augustine.
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(FOX Weather)
The flash flood threat remains low but could quickly change for urban areas that regularly flood and as the ground becomes saturated with widespread daily rain.
"It's a Level 2 out of 4 as we go through Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. That could always change a little bit and modify, but it's a huge chunk of real estate for central and southern Florida," FOX Weather Meteorologist Craig Herrera said. "Lots of moisture being pumped up this direction, and that moisture is just not going to move, especially as we get a stalled front starts to sit just over to the panhandle of Florida."
Drought relief in sight
It's not all doom and gloom. The rain will help Florida with its current drought status. As of this week, half of the Sunshine State is facing at least some level of drought after a dry April and May.
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Southwest Florida is currently under a severe drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, and could benefit the most from the rain. Fort Myers and Naples are forecast to see more than a foot of rain, and Tampa could receive between 5 and 8 inches.
(FOX Weather)
It's not unusual for Florida to experience a drier April and May ahead of the Atlantic hurricane season starting in June. Florida's rainy season begins in mid-May and runs through October.
Historical weather data from the National Weather Service shows that Miami experiences the most rain in June, with an average of 10.51 inches.