Tropical Storm Sara forecast to unleash catastrophic impacts in Central America
Tropical Storm Sara is the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
Tropical Storm Sara's Future Impacts Appear Less Daunting For Florida
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross says new forecast data now indicates a much less concerning forecast for Florida from Tropical Storm Sara, though the storm still has life-threatening impacts for Central America.
MIAMI – A late-season tropical system swirling over the Caribbean Sea strengthened into Tropical Storm Sara on Thursday, and forecasters fear that the storm will unleash life-threatening and potentially catastrophic impacts in Central America, including flash flooding and mudslides.
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This image shows mud and debris off the Honduras coast at Roatan due to torrential rain from Tropical Depression Nineteen. (Scott Cave / FOX Weather)
Government officials in Honduras have been urging residents living along the banks of rivers and in other low-lying areas to prepare for an onslaught of rainfall and potential flooding. Mariners are urged to secure vessels in ports while work on land continues to secure roofs and clear drains and ditches.
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This image shows mud and debris off the Honduras coast at Roatan due to torrential rain from Tropical Depression Nineteen. (Scott Cave / FOX Weather)
Travel around the region has also been impacted, with both American Airlines and United Airlines offering to waive some fees associated with changing flights.
Cruise lines are also telling passengers with upcoming itineraries in the area to keep tabs on the forecast.
"Carnival Cruise Line’s Fleet Operations Center in Miami is actively monitoring the disturbance in the Caribbean," a spokesperson for Carnival Cruise Lines said in an email to FOX Weather. "Guests are encouraged to opt-in to text alerts when checking in for upcoming cruises and to monitor emails."
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What's the latest with Tropical Storm Sara?
Tropical Storm Sara is located more than 200 miles east of Honduras and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.
It's moving off to the west at about 12 mph.
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What's the forecast for Tropical Storm Sara?
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Tropical Storm Sara will continue to move to the west on Thursday, bringing the center of the late-season storm near the coast of eastern Honduras.
The system is then expected to slow down and meander near the northern coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend, with potentially devastating effects as Sara continues to dump torrential rains.
Forecasters said that feet of rain could fall in portions of Honduras through early next week as the system meanders over the area.
Rainfall totals of 10-20 inches, with locally higher amounts of 30 inches, are expected over northern Honduras.
"This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza," the NHC warned.
Other parts of Honduras, as well as Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua, could see 5-10 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts of 15 inches, through early next week.
Along the northern coast of Honduras, a storm surge of 1-3 feet is possible in areas of onshore winds, and the region should also expect large and destructive waves at the beach.
What are the future prospects for Tropical Storm Sara affecting Florida?
The good news for those monitoring the storm in the U.S. is that the long range forecast is nowhere near as imposing for Sara as it was even just a day ago.
Earlier forecasts had Sara staying farther out in the warm Caribbean waters, allowing for further development and potentially eyeing Florida as a major storm next week.
However, new forecasts on Thursday now indicate Sara will spend considerably more time near or over land this weekend, significantly dimming its prospects for future strengthening.
"We can't say that there isn't going to be an effect in Florida, but the odds are very low now of a significant impact from this storm in Florida. And there maybe next to none at all," said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. "In fact, if you had to put any odds on it, you'd say a better chance of next to none than certainly a significant storm."
The new forecast cone from the NHC issued Thursday afternoon now indicates Sara may not survive its trek over the Yucatán Peninsula and could dissipate from a formal tropical cyclone on Monday.
"And then the question is, what comes out here (off the Yucatán Peninsula)?" Norcross said. "We're getting into strong upper level winds and lots of dry air. So the thinking is, even if something sneaks out up there, it's going to be under hostile conditions. So we're not looking for any kind of development in the Gulf, almost certainly."
The timing currently has whatever's left of Sara heading toward Florida on Tuesday with arrival on Wednesday. Norcross said there are still a few scenarios with lingering slim possibilities the storm could develop into something more robust besides just some gusty rain showers for Florida.
"Really, almost every other possibility looks like it'll die out and not be a factor for Florida," he said.
Tropical Storm Sara is the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.