Tropical threat in Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico continues to grow but uncertainty in forecast remains
A number of computer forecast models depict a strong tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of this week, but there still remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, with several potential outcomes.
Building tropical threat has millions along Gulf Coast on alert
Forecasters are monitoring an area of disturbed weather that now has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane as it moves into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in the coming days. This has millions along the gulf coast from Texas to Florida keeping an eye on the system.
Millions of people living along the Gulf Coast are being urged to make sure preparations are in place as the next tropical threat to the U.S. brews in the Caribbean, and there are increasing signs that the ingredients needed for a tropical storm or hurricane to form are coming together.
A number of computer forecast models depict a strong tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of this week, but there still remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, with several potential outcomes.
(FOX Weather)
The development odds for the system have been steadily increasing, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there is a high chance of tropical development in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico over the next seven days.
"I really just want you to be on guard, really all the way from Texas to Florida for tropical development," FOX Weather Meteorologist Michael Estime said.
The NHC says a very broad area of low pressure is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America.
"Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system during the next several days," the NHC said in its latest outlook. "A tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week."
Regardless of development, this system is expected to dump heavy rain over portions of Central America during the next several days, according to the NHC.
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Building a weather puzzle
(FOX weather)
Pieces of this complicated weather puzzle are slowly coming together. That includes a weather pattern known as the Central American Gyre.
The gyre is a sprawling area of low pressure that feeds off moisture streaming in from the Pacific Ocean and forms near or over Central America. At its core, it is a heavy rain producer with impacts extending outwards hundreds of miles and leading to threats of torrential rainfall, flooding and landslides for more than a dozen countries centered in and around Central America.
WHAT IS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE?
(FOX Weather)
However, organized low-pressure centers can develop into tropical storms or even hurricanes within the larger gyre if water temperatures and upper-level winds become favorable for tropical development. Current water temperatures in the Caribbean are near the record-warm levels set last season.
The ultimate fate of tropical development will depend on the location of the gyre, how strong it becomes and the atmospheric steering – or blocking – patterns occurring in the southern U.S.