NOAA expects below-normal hurricane season in central Pacific
Hurricane Dora, which set records in the Pacific for its longevity, played an indirect role in deadly wildfires that impacted Hawaii in 2023. The Category 4 hurricane passed south of the islands by several hundred miles but helped create a pressure gradient, which spread wildfires. The blaze that impacted Lahaina is believed to have killed at least 100 people and is the state’s worst natural disaster.
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The first outlook for the 2024 hurricane season in the central Pacific has been released, and for Hawaiian residents, a developing La Niña is expected to dictate how busy the season will be.
NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center, in coordination with the agency’s Climate Prediction Center, expects 1-4 tropical cyclones to traverse the ocean, which is below the typical 4-5 tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.
The central Pacific basin extends from 140°W longitude to the International Date Line and includes several clusters of islands and atolls, but the Hawaiian Islands are the only region impacted by tropical cyclones.
"Hurricane season in the central Pacific region is likely to be below average this year," Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s CPC said in a statement. "A key factor influencing our forecast is the predicted arrival of La Niña this summer, which typically contributes to less tropical cyclone activity across the central Pacific Ocean basin."
La Nina hurricane season impacts (FOX Weather)
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Forecasters believe a waning El Niño will quickly transition through the neutral stage of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or what is commonly referred to as the ENSO, and lead to a La Niña weather pattern by the fall.
Under a La Niña regime, ocean temperatures are typically cooler than average and wind shear is more robust than during other stages of the ENSO.
In 2023, NOAA expected four to seven tropical cyclones in the basin and, after the season concluded, reported that four had either formed in or crossed into the basin from the eastern Pacific.
On average, Hawaii sees a direct hit by a tropical cyclone about once every decade, but the frequency can vary significantly, depending on weather patterns.
Hurricane Dora is seen in the Pacific Ocean in this satellite image taken Aug. 10, 2023. (NOAA)
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"As we look towards our coming hurricane season, we must prepare with the real possibility in mind that a hurricane could impact our community," Chris Brenchley, director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said in a statement.
The vulnerability of the Hawaiian Islands to hurricanes was evident last year when Hurricane Dora passed south of the state but helped to spread deadly wildfires.
The Category 4 hurricane developed in the eastern Pacific, but its proximity to the islands helped to enhance a pressure gradient, leading to wind-driven fires.
The blaze that impacted Lahaina is believed to have killed at least 100 people and is the state’s worst natural disaster.
Hurricane names Dora and Otis retired
The WMO voted to retire North Eastern Pacific hurricane names Dora and Otis. For the first time since 2014, the committee did not retire any Atlantic names.