Punxsutawney Phil, wrong 61% of the time, sees shadow
Punxsutawney Phil’s long-term accuracy is only about 39%
Punxsutawney Phil predicts six more weeks of winter
Punxsutawney Phil has predicted there will be six more weeks of winter.
PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. – Punxsutawney Phil emerged from his burrow Wednesday morning and made his annual Groundhog Day prediction for the remainder of winter.
As the sun rose at 7:25 a.m. Eastern, America's favorite groundhog was roused from a stump on Gobbler’s Knob. Legend has it that if the large rodent sees his shadow, then there are six more weeks of winter ahead. If not, spring will arrive early.
If you were looking for a sliver of hope that the cold winter will end sooner rather than later, Phil has bad news.
The groundhog saw his shadow, predicting six more weeks of winter.
MOVE OVER, PHIL: HERE ARE 10 OTHER GROUNDHOGS THAT WEIGH IN ON THE FORECAST
The animal prognosticator has been at it since the 1880s. Records kept by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club show Phil had predicted 106 continued winters and only 20 early springs as of 2021. According to the Stormfax Almanac, that works out to a 39% accuracy rate for Phil.
In the near term, the groundhog’s accuracy rate is slightly better. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Phil has been right about 40% of the time on average over the past decade.
HOW ACCURATE IS PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL REALLY?
Last year, Phil predicted more winter. According to NOAA, his forecast was about half right. February 2021 was the coldest since 1989, but March turned out to be warmer than average.